Highlights The Biden administration is combining Trumpian nationalism with a renewed push for US innovation in a major infrastructure bill that is highly likely to become law. Populism and Great Power struggle with China and Russia are…
Highlights The Biden Administration's $2.25 trillion infrastructure plan rolled out yesterday will, at the margin, boost global demand for energy and base metals more than expected later this year and next. Global GDP growth…
Dear client, In addition to this week’s abbreviated report, we are also sending you a Special Report on currency hedging, authored by my colleague Xiaoli Tang. Xiaoli’s previous work mapped out a dynamic hedging strategy for…
Highlights Market-based geopolitical analysis is about identifying upside as well as downside risk. So far this year upside risks include vaccine efficacy, coordinated monetary and fiscal stimulus, China’s avoidance of over-…
After having stagnated last year, the Chilean peso is recovering smartly, following copper prices higher. As the world’s top producer of the red metal, Chile’s currency typically benefits from favorable copper market…
Brazilian president Jair Bolsonaro’s decision to replace Petrobras’ CEO is dashing hopes of Brazil’s return to economic orthodoxy. The president’s action came amid fears of a truckers strike on the back of…
The outlook for the US domestic economy is brightening. The worst of the latest surge in COVID-19 infections is behind us while the rollout of vaccines is gathering pace. This improvement is being registered in the counter…
According to BCA Research’s Foreign Exchange Strategy service highlights a tactical opportunity to go short the AUD/MXN cross. Three catalysts underpin this thesis: relative economic activity, valuation, and sentiment.…
Highlights For the month of February, our trading model recommends shorting the US dollar versus the euro and Swiss franc. While we agree a barbell strategy makes sense, we would rather hold the yen and the Scandinavian currencies.…
BCA Research’s Emerging Markets Strategy service remains negative on the BRL. Brazilian stocks will only become a clear buy after their risk premium reflects fiscal challenges better. Rising resource prices and the…