BCA Research's Emerging Markets Strategy service reiterates its recommendation to receive 10-year swap rates and recommends investors to overweight local-currency Colombian sovereign bonds relative to the EM benchmark.…
Please note that yesterday we published Special Report on Egypt recommending buying domestic bonds while hedging currency risk. Today we are enclosing analysis on Hungary, Poland and Colombia. I will present our latest thoughts on the…
Latin American currencies are in a structural bear market relative to Asian ones. The poor productivity performance of Latin America relative to Asia drives this structural trend. Despite this general tendency for Latin…
Feature Analysis on Korea & South Africa are available on pages 6 and 10, respectively. Mexico: Balancing Pros And Cons We have been overweight Mexican sovereign credit and local currency bonds as well as equities relative to the…
Analyses on Chinese autos and Brazil are available below. Highlights The Fed’s aggressive monetization of public and some private debt has inspired investors to allocate cash to risk assets However, a number of cyclical…
Based on the CRB indices, energy prices have fallen to an all-time low relative to industrial metals. Sure, oil demand has collapsed and storage is near full capacity, but the slope of the oil curve suggests that prices already…
Mexican equities and European bank stocks have been trading in close tandem, indicating that common shocks are driving them both. For now, each of those markets continue to trade at very depressed levels. Funding stresses…
BCA Research’s Emerging Markets Strategy service continues to recommend underweighting Brazil and shorting the BRL versus the US dollar. Brazilian markets plunged last Friday due to the ongoing political crisis.…
Highlights The collapse in oil prices supercharges the geopolitical risks stemming from the global pandemic and recession. Low oil prices should discourage petro-states from waging war, but Iran may be an important exception. Russian…