Foreign debt obligations (FDO) – the sum of short-term claims, interest payments and amortization over the next 12 months – stand at $180 billion, equivalent to 78% of Brazil’s annual exports. Problematically,…
The Brazilian economy is recovering, albeit slowly. The level of economic activity is still well below its pre-recession level but is grinding slowly back. The key economic risk is stall speed. Like an aircraft, if the pace of…
Highlights The lingering global manufacturing recession and the substantial drop in U.S. bond yields have been behind the decoupling between both EM stocks and the S&P 500, and cyclical and defensive equities. Neither the most…
Highlights Four ghosts of 2016 are knocking at the door: Brexit, Trump, Brazil, Italy. President Trump and U.S. trade policy are keeping uncertainty high. Upgrade the odds of a no-deal Brexit to about 33%. Expect limited stimulus…
Analyses on the Philippines, Colombia and Argentina are available below. Highlights Global growth conditions, especially outside the U.S., remain bond friendly. Nevertheless, U.S. bonds are overbought and technical factors might…
Highlights So What? Key geopolitical risks remain unresolved and most of the improvements are transitory. Maintain a cautious tactical stance toward risk assets. Why? U.S.-China relations remain the preeminent geopolitical risk to…
Highlights Analysis on Brazil is available below. If banks in China are forced by regulators to properly recognize and provision for non-performing assets, large banks would become substantially undercapitalized while many small- and…
Dear Client, Tomorrow we will publish a debate piece on China shedding more light on the ongoing discussions at BCA on this topic. This report will articulate the conceptual and analytical differences between my colleague, Peter Berezin…