While the media has zeroed in on the newly announced tariffs on Mexico late last week, tariffs on Indian imports and the narrowly avoided Australia trade war front barely made the news. This heightened policy uncertainty has…
Investor surveys show that the majority of investors’ top concerns are political or geopolitical in nature. Yet there is limited research devoted to quantifying these risks. The most prominent techniques involve tallying…
Analysis on the Philippines and Argentina are below. Highlights Analysis on the Philippines starts on page 9 and Argentina on page 12. Relative return on capital for non-financial corporations points to continuous EM equity…
Highlights So what? Quantifying geopolitical risk just got easier. Why? In this report we introduce 10 proprietary, market-based indicators of country-level political and geopolitical risk. Featured countries include…
Our Emerging Markets Strategy team performed a simulation including in the public budget, all of Pemex’s payments and all its receipts from the government. While the overall fiscal position deteriorates, it is not…
Our Emerging Markets Strategy team has incorporated Pemex into their budget analysis. The resulting fiscal deterioration is not calamitous. Specifically, international credit agencies estimate that Pemex needs an additional $13…
Although, a closer look at debt sustainability in Mexico reveals a different picture. Mexico’s public debt level including the debt of state-owned enterprises is lower than those in Brazil and South Africa. Notably, Mexico…
Highlights Odds are that the recent improvement in Chinese manufacturing PMIs could be due to inventory re-stocking rather than a decisive turnaround in final demand. “Hard” data have not shown meaningful improvements in…
Highlights Venezuela’s oil production likely fell ~ 500k b/d last week in the wake of nationwide power outages, reducing total output to ~ 500k b/d. However, neither OPEC 2.0 nor U.S. President Donald Trump drew much attention to…