The manner in which U.S. sanctions against PDVSA and the Maduro regime evolve – in particular, whether a regime change materializes – will determine whether waivers on the oil-export sanctions the U.S. re-imposed on…
Political economy – i.e., the interplay between critical nation states’ policies and markets – often trumps straightforward supply-demand analysis in oil. This is because policy decisions affect production and…
Highlights Spread Product Valuation: Corporate bond spreads don’t look especially cheap relative to average historical levels. But they are far too elevated for the current phase of the economic cycle. Valuations in other spread…
Highlights The current trajectory in global share prices resembles what took place in 2000 and early 2001. The early 2001 rebound in global and EM stocks lasted several weeks only, despite ongoing easing by the Federal Reserve.…
Highlights We advocate implementing asset allocation not across EM assets, but rather relative to their DM counterparts. EM stocks should be part of a global equity portfolio. EM sovereign and corporate credit should be part of a…
In our commodity team’s simulation of how a state collapse could affect oil prices, we make the following assumptions based on recent history. First, Venezuela collapses next month. Second, OPEC 2.0 responds with a…
Brazilian stocks have lately exhibited a low correlation with the overall EM equity index. Thus, even if our negative view on EM risk assets pans out, Brazilian domestic equity plays will likely suffer moderate downside in…
The Brazil is recovering from its most severe economic depression of the past several decades. Consequently, there is a lot of pent-up demand for discretionary spending in general and properties in particular. The property…
Highlights Please note that country sections on Mexico and Colombia published below. The policy stimulus in China could produce a growth revival in the second half of 2019, but there are no signs of an imminent bottom in China’s…