Highlights So What? Our best and worst calls of 2018 cast light on our methodology and 2019 forecasts. Why? Our clients took us to task for violating our own methodology on the Iranian oil sanctions. Sticking to our guns would…
Highlights So What? Global divergence will persist beyond the near term. Why? China’s stimulus will be disappointing unless things get much worse. U.S.-China trade war will reignite and strategic tensions will continue.…
While the trade-war cease-fire agreed at the G20 summit between the U.S. and China boosted grain markets – particularly as China agreed to begin “substantial” purchases from the U.S. – the future of the trade…
Estimates of Venezuelan external debt exposure place it around a staggering US$150-$200 billion. Sovereign and PDVSA bonds due next year are estimated to be about US$9 billion. This does not even account for payments due on other…
Highlights The current market action in the EM equity space qualifies as a bear market, not a correction. Yet the magnitude of this drawdown (25%) is still considerably smaller than the median stock price drop (45%) of previous bear…
Please note that a Special Alert titled "Brazil: A Regime Shift?" discussing investment implications of the weekend elections was published on Tuesday. Highlights The combination of rising U.S. bond yields and slumping…