September flash PMIs show slowing global momentum, reinforcing US equity outperformance and underweights in industrial metals. The US composite slipped to 53.6 from 54.6, led by weaker manufacturing. Europe was mixed: Services…
European sentiment indicators weakened again in August and September, reinforcing tactical US outperformance. While the September flash consumer confidence print beat expectations, it is still sluggish. Surveys such as Sentix and ZEW…
August PPI inflation cooled, reinforcing the case for Fed easing and long duration with steepeners. Headline PPI fell 0.1% m/m, bringing the annual rate down to 2.6% after July’s 0.7% gain. Core PPI (ex-food, energy, and trade)…
European sentiment continues to weaken, reinforcing the tactical case for US outperformance over Europe. The September Sentix Investor Confidence index fell to -9.2 from -3.7, defying expectations for an increase and signaling that…
China’s August PMIs improved, but underlying data point to persistent weakness and limited momentum. The official NBS composite rose to 50.5 from 50.2, with manufacturing still in contraction at 49.4 and services edging higher to 50.…
August ISM Manufacturing was mixed, with stronger orders offset by weak production and employment. The headline rose to 48.7 from 48.0, missing expectations. New orders beat estimates, rising into expansion at 51.4 and lifting…
Regional Fed surveys point to low GDP growth, not an outright recession, which tactically supports low growth plays such as duration and tech. These timely surveys provide a snapshot of current month activity, combining “…
Although Euro area PMIs beat expectations in August, the growth outlook remains weak. The composite index rose to 51.1, driven by manufacturing returning to expansion at 50.5 from 49.8. Meanwhile the services PMI slipped 0.3…
The Philly Fed’s August dip confirms persistent US manufacturing weakness and sends a disinflationary impulse. The index fell to -0.3 from 15.9 in July, with shipments, employment, and new orders all declining, the latter…
Banxico’s latest rate cut reinforces our bullish view on Mexican domestic bonds. Mexico’s central bank eased policy by another 25 basis points to 7.75%. Investors should bet on further easing. Inflation will continue…