Manufacturing
After briefly breaking a 16-month contraction streak, the ISM Manufacturing PMI dipped back below the 50.0 boom-bust line in April. It decreased from 50.3 to 49.2, disappointing expectations of 50.0. Notably, measures of domestic and foreign demand both…
The Chinese NBS non-manufacturing PMI came in at 51.2, below the previous month’s number of 53 and below expectations of 52.2. Moreover, the NBS manufacturing PMI also decreased to (a better-than-expected) 50.4 in April from 50.8 in March. Meanwhile, the…
Chinese industrial profit growth slowed in the first three months of the year to 4.3% YTD y/y, from 10.2% y/y in January and February. The March slowdown is meaningful since industrial profits outright contracted by 3.5% relative to March 2023. Weak…
The latest edition of our Big Bank Beige Book suggests the expansion remains intact, though weakness in C’s private-label credit card portfolio could be a harbinger of distress among lower-income consumers. We remain tactically neutral with a bias to turn defensive once clearer signs of a recession emerge.
Investors anticipate a record growth gap between the US and the Eurozone in 2024. Does this skewed expectation create market opportunities?
The resilience of the US economy has led economists to consistently revise up their consensus real GDP growth forecast for 2024, which now stands at 2.4%, up from 0.6% in July 2023. Conversely, the 2024 consensus Eurozone growth estimate has been trending…
The disinflation process is over in Poland and Hungary. Only the Czech Republic will see its core inflation meet its central bank target this year. The reason is much tighter labor market dynamics in the first two. Investors should continue to short a basket of CE3 currencies vis-à-vis the US dollar.
Euro Area small caps typically outperform large caps whenever the trade weighted euro appreciates and underperform whenever it depreciates. The rationale is simple. Most European large cap companies are large multinationals that export their products outside…
Preliminary S&P PMIs for the US showed the manufacturing index declined to contraction territory of 49.9 from 51.9, falling short of expectations of 52. The services PMI also disappointed coming in at 50.9, versus expectations it would improve from 51.7…
Flash estimates for several European PMIs were released Tuesday. The results for manufacturing activity were somewhat disappointing. The German manufacturing PMI increased from 41.9 to 42.2, but underperformed expectations of 42.7. France’s manufacturing…