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Manufacturing

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The Margin Risk

European profits margins are elevated. Will a mild recession be enough to bring them down?

European Investment Strategy by Mathieu Savary
Philly Fed Manufacturing Survey Hides Softer Underlying Dynamics
The headline Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey for April delivered a positive surprise on Thursday, increasing from 3.2 to a twelve-month high of 15.5 and beating expectations it would soften to 2.0. Measures of demand improved with new orders and…
Daily Insights
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Greeting Q1-2024 Earnings Season

In this note, we preview the Q1-2024 earnings season, give our take on expectations and share what we will be watching.

US Equity Strategy by Irene Tunkel
ZEW Expectations Reaches 26-Month High
Optimism about the future continues to boost investor confidence in the Euro Area.  The ZEW Expectations series for the Eurozone (+10.4 to 43.9) and Germany (+11.2 to 42.9) surged and are now both at their highest in 26 months. Although investors’…
Daily Insights
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Rangebound Euro

EUR/USD collapsed in the wake of last week’s hotter-than-expected US CPI report. Is this pessimism warranted and will the euro’s trading range that has prevailed since 2023 breakdown?

European Investment Strategy by Mathieu Savary
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Looking Beyond The Labor Market Headlines

We look beneath headline data to assess the state of the labor market in cyclical goods-producing industries that have previously led overall nonfarm payrolls and in the services segments that have recently been leading the charge. The bottom-up view looks a lot like the top-down view: the labor market is softening, but very slowly, and offers no indications that a recession is at hand.

US Investment Strategy by Doug Peta
German Industrial Production Growth Reaches 13-Month High
German industrial production growth accelerated from an upwardly revised 1.3% m/m to 2.1% m/m in February, registering the fastest pace in 13 months and largely beating expectations of a slowdown. A 7.9% m/m increase in the construction sector was the top…
Daily Insights
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Listening To Europe’s Credit Impulse

Europe credit flows are stabilizing, hence a major drag on the region’s growth will dissipate. What does this development imply for European equities?

European Investment Strategy by Mathieu Savary
Sweden PMIs Send Optimistic Global Growth Signal
As a small open economy, Sweden’s economic performance is a good barometer of global growth developments. Swedish PMIs for March were overall positive. The Manufacturing PMI rose to the 50 boom-bust line following 19 consecutive months of contraction and…
Daily Insights
ISM Services Prices Paid At A Post-Pandemic Low
The US manufacturing sector appears to be enjoying a revival. As we highlighted yesterday, the ISM manufacturing PMI unexpectedly returned to growth in March and the S&P Global US manufacturing PMI remains in expansion territory. Yet, service sector…
Daily Insights

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