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Manufacturing

Near-Term Upside Potential For Eurozone Stocks Vs US, But Bearish Cyclical Outlook
The resilience of the US economy has led economists to consistently revise up their consensus real GDP growth forecast for 2024, which now stands at 2.4%, up from 0.6% in July 2023. Conversely, the 2024 consensus Eurozone growth estimate has been trending…
Daily Insights
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Market Divergences Within Central Europe

The disinflation process is over in Poland and Hungary. Only the Czech Republic will see its core inflation meet its central bank target this year. The reason is much tighter labor market dynamics in the first two. Investors should continue to short a basket of CE3 currencies vis-à-vis the US dollar.

Emerging Markets Strategy by Rajeeb Pramanik
Flash US Employment PMI Craters
Preliminary S&P PMIs for the US showed the manufacturing index declined to contraction territory of 49.9 from 51.9, falling short of expectations of 52. The services PMI also disappointed coming in at 50.9, versus expectations it would improve from 51.7…
Daily Insights
Services PMIs in Europe Surprise to the Upside
Flash estimates for several European PMIs were released Tuesday. The results for manufacturing activity were somewhat disappointing. The German manufacturing PMI increased from 41.9 to 42.2, but underperformed expectations of 42.7. France’s manufacturing…
Daily Insights
The Effect of Interest Rates on Euro Area Small Caps
Euro Area small caps typically outperform large caps whenever the trade weighted euro appreciates and underperform whenever it depreciates. The rationale is simple. Most European large cap companies are large multinationals that export their products outside…
Daily Insights
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The Margin Risk

European profits margins are elevated. Will a mild recession be enough to bring them down?

European Investment Strategy by Mathieu Savary
Philly Fed Manufacturing Survey Hides Softer Underlying Dynamics
The headline Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey for April delivered a positive surprise on Thursday, increasing from 3.2 to a twelve-month high of 15.5 and beating expectations it would soften to 2.0. Measures of demand improved with new orders and…
Daily Insights
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Greeting Q1-2024 Earnings Season

In this note, we preview the Q1-2024 earnings season, give our take on expectations and share what we will be watching.

US Equity Strategy by Irene Tunkel
ZEW Expectations Reaches 26-Month High
Optimism about the future continues to boost investor confidence in the Euro Area.  The ZEW Expectations series for the Eurozone (+10.4 to 43.9) and Germany (+11.2 to 42.9) surged and are now both at their highest in 26 months. Although investors’…
Daily Insights
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Looking Beyond The Labor Market Headlines

We look beneath headline data to assess the state of the labor market in cyclical goods-producing industries that have previously led overall nonfarm payrolls and in the services segments that have recently been leading the charge. The bottom-up view looks a lot like the top-down view: the labor market is softening, but very slowly, and offers no indications that a recession is at hand.

US Investment Strategy by Doug Peta

Related Topics

Business Cycles Capex Consumer Corporate Economic Growth Government Inflation/Deflation Labor Market Productivity Recession-Hard/Soft Landing See more Topics