Manufacturing
August ISM Manufacturing was mixed, with stronger orders offset by weak production and employment. The headline rose to 48.7 from 48.0, missing expectations. New orders beat estimates, rising into expansion at 51.4 and lifting the New…
Regional Fed surveys point to low GDP growth, not an outright recession, which tactically supports low growth plays such as duration and tech. These timely surveys provide a snapshot of current month activity, combining “objective” indicators such as…
Although Euro area PMIs beat expectations in August, the growth outlook remains weak. The composite index rose to 51.1, driven by manufacturing returning to expansion at 50.5 from 49.8. Meanwhile the services PMI slipped 0.3 points to 50.7. The readings…
The Philly Fed’s August dip confirms persistent US manufacturing weakness and sends a disinflationary impulse. The index fell to -0.3 from 15.9 in July, with shipments, employment, and new orders all declining, the latter slipping into contraction.…
Banxico’s latest rate cut reinforces our bullish view on Mexican domestic bonds. Mexico’s central bank eased policy by another 25 basis points to 7.75%. Investors should bet on further easing. Inflation will continue falling within the target range…
Germany’s June factory orders missed expectations, highlighting persistent headwinds reinforcing the case for a cautious tactical outlook on European assets. Orders fell 1.0% m/m, slowing to 0.8% y/y on a calendar-adjusted basis from 6.1% in May. The…
The July PMIs and inflation data confirm that China faces a persistent low-growth, deflationary backdrop, with weak demand and tariff risk warranting defensive equity positioning. The Caixin manufacturing PMI fell to 49.5, while services ticked up at 52.6.…
In response to trade uncertainty, global growth is cooling but not collapsing, supporting a cautious near-term view on risk assets. Trade disruption earlier this year raised fears of a global recession, but the data so far point to deceleration, not…
We will only move to a fully defensive stance if the “whites of the recession’s eyes” appear. So far, they have not. We will be increasingly looking to our MacroQuant model for guidance on when the next turning point in markets may come.
The July Dallas Fed survey beat expectations, pointing to a rebound in current activity, but the outlook remains subdued, supporting our modestly defensive asset allocation. The headline index rose to 0.9 from -12.7 in June, with production jumping 20 points…