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Manufacturing

Heed Maersk’s Warning?
On Friday, shipping giant Maersk delivered a pessimistic outlook for global trade. Although the company raised its 2023 earnings forecast, the upgrade comes on the back of a better-than-anticipated performance in the first half of the year. Ebitda fell by 72%…
Daily Insights
Where Next For The Euro?
Ever since the bottom below 0.96, the euro has staged a powerful rally. At 1.1, the euro is up 14.6% from its lows. The key question going forward is if investors should chase the rally, or fade strength in the common currency. Our FX strategists suggest…
Daily Insights
Is the Relative Manufacturing/Services Weakness Reversing?
The first half of the year was characterized by a two-speed economy. Manufacturing bore the brunt of the weakness while the services sector remained resilient. However, the global composite PMI corroborates the signal from DM flash PMIs that this dynamic is…
Daily Insights
Global Manufacturing: A Positive Signal From Sweden
The Global Manufacturing PMI remained unchanged at 48.7 in July, indicating that the pace of decline steadied at the start of the third quarter. The details of the release show accelerating rates of decline in production, new orders, and new export orders.…
Daily Insights
Monthly Portfolio Update: Slower Inflation, Then Slower Growth

History suggests that a “soft landing” is highly unlikely after such an aggressive Fed tightening cycle. The rally could continue for a little longer but, on the 12-month horizon, market risks are very skewed to the downside.

Global Asset Allocation by Garry Evans
Distance Makes The Heart Grow Fonder: Webcast Follow-Up

Investors remain cautious about the US economy and still have significant cash that needs to be put to work which could extend the rally further. Earnings rebound later in the year will be supported by rising sales growth and surging earnings of the Magnificent Seven. A restocking cycle, and a pickup in freight activity support transports. Upgrade Transports to an overweight.

US Equity Strategy by Irene Tunkel
Too Early To Call An End To The Fed’s Tightening Cycle

The US is not out of the woods when it comes to inflation, which means that it is too early to conclude that the Fed can stop raising rates. Any further increase in inflation risk would prompt us to turn more cautious on stocks.

Global Investment Strategy by Peter Berezin
Is The Weakness Spreading To Services?
Flash PMIs sent a mixed signal about manufacturing and service sector conditions across DM economies in July. The Euro Area release was particularly weak. An unexpected 0.7-point decline in the Manufacturing PMI and a 0.9 point drop in the Services PMI…
Daily Insights
Taiwanese Export Orders: The Contraction Deepens
Taiwanese export orders sent a pessimistic signal about the global trade cycle. The contraction deepened in June from -17.6% y/y to -24.9% y/y – delivering a downside surprise to expectations of a 20.3% y/y decline. The weakness was broad-based across all of…
Daily Insights
The World Contains Surprises And Disappointments
Citigroup’s global economic surprise index has fallen sharply over the past few months and is now slightly negative – indicating that economic data have surprised to the downside. Yet beneath the surface, there is a dichotomy across major global economies.…
Daily Insights

Related Topics

Business Cycles Capex Consumer Corporate Economic Growth Government Inflation/Deflation Labor Market Productivity Recession-Hard/Soft Landing See more Topics