Highlights Financial markets in both mainstream EM and China are undergoing an adjustment that is not yet complete. EM equity and currency valuations are neutral. When valuations are neutral, the profit and liquidity cycles become the…
Dear Client, There will be no report next week as we will be working on our Quarterly Strategy Outlook, which will be published the following week. In the meantime, please keep an eye out for BCA Research’s Annual Outlook,…
The November Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook survey surprised to the upside, corroborating the positive message from the Empire State survey released earlier this week. General Business Conditions jumped 15.2 points to a 7-…
Chinese retail sales and industrial production data for October surprised to the upside. Retail sales growth accelerated slightly from 4.4% to 4.9% y/y and beat expectations of a slowdown to 3.7%. Similarly, industrial production…
The November Empire State Manufacturing Survey sent a positive signal about the state of US manufacturing activity. The headline general business conditions index jumped 11 points to 30.9, beating expectations of a more muted 2.2…
Highlights US growth will slow next year, not because demand will falter, but because supply-side constraints will prevent the economy from producing as much output as households and businesses want to buy. If aggregate demand…
Both the ISM and Markit PMIs suggest that US manufacturing activity accelerated in September. The ISM index increased 1.2 points to a four-month high of 61.1, surprising expectations of a decline. Similarly, the Markit measure…