Highlights Investors should remain overweight global stocks relative to bonds over the next 12 months and begin shifting equity exposure towards non-US markets. Bond yields will rise next year as global growth picks up, while the…
Highlights There is little risk that inflation will heat up over the next several months, … : Weak growth is more of a threat to the global economy than inflation. … which means the Fed won’t be in any hurry to…
The U.S. growth leadership relative to the rest of the world has prevailed all year and we have been overweight domestic equities relative to the All Country World Index during this period. However, the ingredients for a global…
The October flash PMIs released this morning show a very modest stabilization. The Eurozone manufacturing gauge was stable at 45.7, as was Germany’s which increased slightly from 41.7 to 41.9. France’s manufacturing…
Highlights The investors we met last week were ready to hear some good news: The constructive story we told across three days of client meetings is more sanguine than the consensus view, but clients were open to considering it. Global…
Highlights The currency market is bifurcated in terms of shorter-term expectations versus longer-term factors. The Swedish krona, Norwegian krone, and British pound are solid long-term buys, but could remain very volatile in the short…
Highlights The manufacturing slowdown, on its own, is unlikely to tip the economy into a recession. The sector accounts for a small share of U.S. output and employment, and will gain a tailwind from a pick-up in global growth. A…
Highlights We still don’t see a recession occurring in the next twelve months, … : Recessions only occur when monetary policy is restrictive. It’s easy now, and it will be a while before conditions push the Fed to…
The September ISM Manufacturing number released this morning was much weaker than anticipated, falling from 49.1 to 47.8 instead of rising to 50. Moreover, only 17% of industries reported positive overall growth. On the plus side,…
Highlights U.S. growth will soon rebound thanks to robust drivers of domestic activity, and strengthening money and credit trends. The U.S. Federal Reserve will maintain an easing bias and will expand its balance sheet again. A…