Highlights Monetary Policy: The Fed wants to maintain accommodative financial conditions, and will therefore deliver another rate cut this year if it is expected by the market. This creates a supportive environment for spread product.…
Highlights Analyses on Indonesia and South Africa are available below. The slowdown in Chinese domestic demand has been the main culprit behind the global trade contraction - not the U.S.-China trade confrontation. China’s…
Highlights Portfolio Strategy The contracting manufacturing sector that rekindled recession fears, the harsh reality of the Sino-American trade war weighing on profits, downbeat business confidence and mushrooming capex slowdown…
Highlights Global bond yields have closely tracked the trajectory of global growth. While the global economy remains fragile, some positive signs are emerging: Our global leading economic indicator has moved off its lows; global…
Highlights The lingering global manufacturing recession and the substantial drop in U.S. bond yields have been behind the decoupling between both EM stocks and the S&P 500, and cyclical and defensive equities. Neither the most…
In the U.S., the bifurcation between the service and manufacturing sectors continues. On Tuesday, the August manufacturing index fell from 51.2 to 49.1, which was well below the range of expectations. However, this morning, the…
The automobile sector has been the key driver of the global manufacturing slowdown. This is in contrast to 2015-16, when the main culprit was declining energy capex. According to Wards, global vehicle production is down about 10…
Could rising angst induce an actual recession? Theoretically, the answer is yes. A sudden drop in confidence can generate a self-fulfilling cycle where rising pessimism leads to less private-sector spending, higher…
Highlights While a self-fulfilling crisis of confidence that plunges the global economy into recession cannot be excluded, it is far from our base case. Provided the trade war does not spiral out of control, it is highly likely that…
This morning, the Flash PMI saw a stabilization in the European manufacturing sector. Euro area manufacturing PMI moved up to 47 from 46.5, and in Germany, it rose to 43.6 from 43.2. In Japan, the manufacturing PMI also…