Highlights Duration: Global manufacturing growth will rebound near the end of this year. Much like in 2016, this will result in higher global bond yields on a 12-month horizon. Investors should keep portfolio duration close to…
Highlights The current global trade downtrend has primarily been due to a contraction in Chinese imports. The latter reflects weakness in China's domestic demand in general and capital spending in particular. The current global…
Nominal infrastructure investment growth in China has slowed from over 15% in 2017 to 3% currently. This is the weakest growth rate since 2005 excluding the late 2011-early 2012 period. Over the past decade, each time the…
Dear Client, Next week I am sending you a Special Report on Japan written by Amr Hanafy, Research Associate of BCA’s Global Asset Allocation service. Amr answers some key questions that clients have been asking about Japan recently…
Feature The global manufacturing cycle looks dire at the moment. Around the world, manufacturing PMIs have fallen, profit growth has slowed, and capex has been reined back (Chart 1). This is clearly a risky moment for the economic…
The U.S. ISM Manufacturing index fell modestly in July to 51.2 from 51.7 in June, slightly underperforming the consensus forecast of 52.0. The guts of the report were consistent with ongoing deceleration in overall…
Global manufacturing activity follows a fairly predictable three-year growth cycle: up for the first 18 months, down for the second 18 months. This is not an immutable law of nature, but it is a handy rule of thumb. The last…
Highlights The global manufacturing cycle has averaged about three years in length (peak-to-peak). We are near the bottom of the current cycle, which should set the stage for a recovery phase lasting around 18 months. The global…
This morning’s release of the manufacturing flash PMIs for July shows that the industrial sector remains under duress. Flash manufacturing PMIs in the euro area fell 1.2 to 46.4, underwhelming expectations of 47.7. In…