The headline ISM Manufacturing number rebounded to 55.3 from 54.2, beating expectations of 54.5. The new orders component also gained momentum, even against inventories. An improving new orders-to-inventories ratio is one of the…
China released a February update for several data series overnight, the first data point following the Lunar New Year holiday. Several observations are noteworthy: Overall fixed-asset investment (FAI) picked up modestly, from 5.…
This morning’s data highlighted some weakness in the U.S. Consumer spending contracted in December, and so did personal income in January. The January income data is strange and is likely to be a one-off as it followed a…
Investors have priced out any possibility of a Fed rate hike over the next year, and now even discount a modest rate cut, according to the U.S. Overnight Index Swap (OIS) curve. Yet, while most of the attention of bond investors…
The European economic slowdown shows no sign of ending. This morning, both the German Ifo and the Belgian business confidence decelerated further, with the former falling to 98.5 from 99.3, and the latter weakening from -1.5 to -…
This morning NFIB survey dipped from 104.4 to 101.2, underperforming expectations. However, lengthy government shutdowns, such as the one we just experienced, normally cause this survey to weaken sharply, only to recover once the…
As the world’s second most populous country with an economy projected to grow over 7% annually, India’s potential as a commodity consumer is massive. However, years of distortionary and unfriendly policies have held back the…
Highlights EM equity and credit outperformance versus the U.S. in the past three months was an aberration in the cyclical and structural downtrend. Hence, the recent outperformance of EM assets provides a good entry point for…
Highlights Neither the weakness in emerging market economies nor political turmoil in Europe are likely to significantly affect the U.S. economy. Although the U.S. economy is increasingly service-oriented, financial markets have…