Although there may be a method to DOGE’s 100-mile-an-hour madness, we think the worries and uncertainty stoked by it and on-again, off-again tariff measures have increased the probability of a recession while bringing forward its…
After range-bound trading late last year, oil prices began the year rising to resistance levels, before falling and testing support on the downside. Oil remains caught between conflicting supply and demand risks. Increased…
Europe’s resilience to global liquidity deterioration isn’t a fluke—it signals a structural shift. Our latest report explains why the decline in precautionary money demand marks the end of Europe’s liquidity trap and what it means…
While inflation concerns prevail in the US, Swiss inflation hit its lowest level in almost four years. Headline CPI contracted 0.1% m/m in January, leaving the annual inflation rate at 0.4%, near the bottom of the Swiss National Bank…
In its budget plans last week, the Indian fiscal authorities announced major tax cuts for households – the equivalent of about US$12 billion, 0.3% of GDP – to boost consumer spending. Soon thereafter, the central bank cut its policy rates…
In his latest Thoughts Of The Day, Peter Berezin discusses the different moving parts of the global economy today and the potential impact of Trump's policies.
Our Emerging Market strategists published a follow-up piece to their Bessenomics note where they assess the new Treasury Secretary plan’s impact on markets. Lower interest rates are central to Bessenomics. The Trump…
Europe is about to become President Trump’s next target. The good news: a US/EU trade war will be short as common ground to achieve a deal exists. The bad news: European assets remain at the mercy of heightened uncertainty. How…
China’s Caixin PMIs decelerated in January, with the composite ticking down to 51.1 from 51.4. The decrease was driven by both manufacturing, which fell to 50.1 from 50.5, and services, which fell from 52.2 to 51.0. The data is…
The January ISM Manufacturing index beat estimates, increasing to 50.9 to end a 26-month streak of manufacturing contraction. New orders rose to 55.1 from 52.1. Employment is also back in expansion. Prices paid strengthened as well,…