Manufacturing

The Fed held rates steady this afternoon, and the timing of its next move will be dictated by whether the tariff shock to inflation is transitory or more long lasting.

The policy-induced decline in consumer confidence has spread to businesses and investors, increasing the probability of a recession even if the administration reverses field on its aggressive tariff measures. We reiterate our defensive asset allocation recommendations.

Europe’s near-term outlook remains clouded by uncertainty, even after the tariff reprieve. Our latest update breaks down why the risks to growth, profits, and financial conditions are still skewed to the downside — with Sweden standing out as a key bellwether.

Trump’s tariff shock will push Europe into recession — but it’s also triggering a powerful integration response. In this report, we lay out the tactical case for staying defensive and the structural case for going long European assets when the dust settles.

With economic headwinds building and fiscal dynamics shifting, bond markets are at a turning point. Our latest note outlines why German bund yields are set to decline and why UK gilts are poised to outperform — and how to position accordingly.