There is a high probability that the global economy will tip into recession in the second half of 2024. A long yen position is an excellent hedge against that risk.
US monetary policy is restrictive, as evidenced by a falling jobs-workers gap. The reason that unemployment has not risen is because labor demand still exceeds supply. That will change in the second half of 2024 when the US economy…
While Chinese stocks have low valuations and are oversold, their attractiveness is dampened by uncertainties in the magnitude of stimulus and the dismal outlook for corporate profits in the next six to nine months.
The stock market’s pre-eminent growth sector is not US technology, it is French luxury goods. On most time horizons over the past decades, French luxuries have trumped US technology on profit growth, price performance and…
Since July, the DXY index is up 4.5% from the lows. On a broader trade-weighted basis, the Federal Reserve’s measure of the nominal dollar is up 2.9%. The usual suspects for dollar strength have been weakness in global…