Highlights Global growth will rebound in 2020, led by the US and China, putting upward pressure on global bond yields. Maintain below-benchmark overall duration exposure. Central banks will stay dovish until policy reflation has…
Highlights The key risk to a dollar bearish view is a US-led rebound in global growth. This would allow the Federal Reserve to tighten monetary conditions much faster than other central banks, supporting the dollar in the process.…
Highlights A 400k b/d addition to OPEC 2.0’s official production cut of 1.2mm b/d will have little effect on actual supplies. The market already has seen ~ 2.0mm to 2.5mm b/d of output removed from the market via excess voluntary…
Highlights Chart 1Manufacturing PMIs Track Bond Yields November’s manufacturing PMI data were released yesterday, giving us an update for two of our preferred global growth indicators: the Global Manufacturing PMI and…
Highlights BCA still sees green shoots: Our latest view meeting reinforced BCA strategists’ optimistic global outlook, and we are methodically adding international and cyclical exposures to reflect it. Relatively modest M&A…
Highlights The seemingly interminable discussions around the “phase one” deal touted by US and Chinese trade negotiators notwithstanding, base metals prices are primed for a rally. The bottoming in base metals prices…
Highlights Duration: Incoming data are consistent with our view that global growth is at an inflection point, and will improve during the next few months. As this plays out and recessionary fears fade into the background, we expect the…
Mr. X and his daughter, Ms. X, are long-time BCA clients who visit our office toward the end of each year to discuss the economic and financial market outlook for the year ahead. This report is an edited transcript of our recent…