Highlights Chart 1The Fed Must Remain Dovish  Many were quick to label last week’s FOMC decision a “hawkish cut”. This is somewhat true in the near-term. The Fed lowered rates by 25 basis points while…

Special Report

Highlights Rising recession risk, shaky economic fundamentals, and absence of positive yielding assets motivate us to reexamine which assets can be counted on to protect a portfolio in the future. We analyze 10 safe havens on four…

Highlights On a tactical horizon, underweight bonds versus cash, especially those bonds with deeply negative yields… …and underweight bonds versus equities. On a strategic horizon, remain overweight a 50:50 combination…

Special Report

Highlights A recovery in Chinese auto sales is not imminent. Car sales will likely stage only a rate-of-change improvement, moving from deep to mild contraction or stagnation over the next three-to-six months. Low-speed electric…

Pervasive global policy uncertainty continues to fuel USD safe-haven demand. This keeps the Fed’s broad trade-weighted dollar index for goods close to record highs, which continues to stifle oil demand. At present, we do not expect…

Special Report

Feature Financial market stability depends on the availability of liquidity – which means the ability to switch between the market and cash in unlimited size and in either direction without destabilising the market price. Therefore…

Highlights Q3/2019 Performance Breakdown: Our recommended model bond portfolio underperformed the custom benchmark by -30bps during the third quarter of the year. Winners & Losers: The biggest underperformance came from…

Highlights Chart 1Contagion?  Until last week, global growth weakness had been wholly confined to the manufacturing sector. But the drop to 52.6 in September’s Non-Manufacturing PMI (from 56.4 in August) raises the…

Highlights The slowdown in the U.S. manufacturing sector is at risk of becoming deeper than elsewhere. This is not bearish for the U.S. dollar, given that it is a countercyclical currency, but it is not a constructive development,…

Highlights MARKET FORECASTS  Investment Strategy: Markets have entered a “show me” phase. Better economic data and meaningful progress on the trade negotiations will be necessary for stocks to move sustainably…