Highlights Fed policy is likely to proceed in two stages: An initial stage characterized by a highly accommodative monetary policy, followed by a second stage where the Fed is raising rates aggressively in response to…
Highlights Fed: The Fed will cut rates in July, and possibly once more this year. This extra stimulus will help boost global growth in the second half of 2019. Credit: With inflation expectations low, the Fed will not risk upsetting…
Highlights Portfolio Strategy Melting inflation expectations, widening relative indebtedness, expensive adjusted relative valuations, high odds of a further drop in relative profit margins and the high-octane small cap status all…
Supply - demand fundamentals point to higher oil prices going forward. Our expectation regarding OPEC production remains unchanged: The original cartel led by the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) will maintain production discipline this…
Highlights Fed: A Fed rate cut in June or July is not a done deal, but is looking increasingly likely purely from a risk management perspective, as it would both calm financial markets and potentially boost the inflation expectations…
Highlights Portfolio Strategy The risk/reward tradeoff remains squarely to the downside and we are turning cyclically (3-12 month horizon) cautious on the prospects of the broad equity market. The Presidential cycle, UBER’s IPO…
Crude oil price volatility surged over the past week, and likely will remain elevated. Underlying prices continue to reflect heightened policy risk ranging from continuing Sino – U.S. trade-war tensions; new tariff threats against…
Please note that analysis on India is published below. Highlights This report reviews several financial market-based indicators and price signals from various corners of global markets that are pertinent to the global business cycle,…