Highlights Analysis on Indonesia is available below. EM financial markets have diverged from the global growth indicators they have historically correlated with. This raises doubts about the sustainability of this rally. In China,…

Highlights Price differentials between global light-sweet crude oil benchmarks Brent and WTI will narrow over the next three years, as U.S. light-sweet crude oil exports expand and North Sea production growth remains challenged. U.S.…

Highlights Chart 1Track The CRB/Gold Ratio  Earlier this year the Fed signaled a dovish policy shift in response to slowing global growth and tighter financial conditions. In large part due to the Fed’s move, financial…

Highlights It was easy to upgrade equities to overweight at the beginning of the year, … : The fourth-quarter selloff had reduced the S&P 500’s forward four-quarter multiple to 13.6 at its trough, and we never shared…

Highlights Trade talks have been the primary driver of the rally in Chinese stocks and China-related assets over the past five months. While trade is important to China’s economy, Chinese domestic demand is the primary driver of…

Highlights Low Bond Volatility: Weakening non-U.S. growth and a more dovish Fed have crushed global government bond volatility, especially in Europe and Japan where yields are struggling to stay above 0%. Treasury-Bund and Treasury-JGB…

Highlights Portfolio Strategy The ongoing capex upcycle, resurgent credit growth, easy Chinese policy trifecta, upbeat signals from high frequency financial market data and depressed technicals, all suggest that a re-rating phase…

Highlights Chart 1Look For Rate Hikes In H2 2019  First things first: The Fed’s rate hike cycle is not over. Last week’s FOMC statement told us that the Fed will be “patient” and Chairman Powell cited…

Highlights Portfolio Strategy Chinese reflation, the ongoing global capex upcycle, and the Fed induced cap on the greenback with the knock-on effect of higher commodity prices, all signal that it still pays to overweight S&P…