Highlights Portfolio Strategy A rare buying opportunity has emerged in the S&P consumer staples index, especially for long-term oriented capital. The bearish story is already baked into current valuations, and industry green-…

Highlights Global Inflation has upside on a cyclical basis, but this narrative is well known and investors have already placed their bets accordingly, buying inflation protection in a wide swath of markets. However, global growth has…

Special Report

Highlights Since the end of the Bretton Woods system in 1971 there have been five major episodes where U.S. dollar moves were not uniform across all currencies. These episodes share common features: a rallying broad trade-weighted U.S…

Special Report

Highlights Investors are underestimating the risks of U.S.-Iran tensions; The Obama administration's 2015 deal resulted in Iran curbing aggressive regional behavior that threatened global oil supply; The U.S. negotiating position…

Highlights Chart 1Risks To The Bond Bear Market  Two weeks ago we flagged that large net short positioning and elevated growth expectations left the Treasury market primed to benefit from any disturbance in the economic outlook.…

The GAA DM Equity Country Allocation model is updated as of May 31, 2018. No significant changes in the model's allocation this month, as shown in Table 1. Table 1Model Allocation Vs. Benchmark Weights  As shown in Table 2 and…

Highlights Portfolio Strategy A virtuous software capex upcycle will continue to bolster industry sales/profits in the coming months. We reiterate our high-conviction overweight recommendation on the S&P software index. Depressed…

Highlights Italy is a live drama. However, both Italy and Brussels have constraints that should lead to a compromise on fiscal stimulus. Italy will not leave the euro in the foreseeable future, and the European Central Bank has little…

Highlights The global trade slowdown will intensify, even if U.S. domestic demand remains robust. The large emerging Asian bourses will recouple to the downside with their EM peers. Market-neutral EM equity portfolios should consider…

Highlights Chart of the WeekBCA's Ensemble Forecast Vs. Base Case  With OPEC 2.0 signaling it will consider raising production in 2H18 to cover unexpected losses from Venezuela, and rising odds that state's output will cease,…