Highlights Corporate Bonds & The Yield Curve: Corporate bond excess returns fall sharply once the yield curve flattens to below 50 basis points, though they typically remain positive until the yield curve inverts. Interestingly,…
Highlights Portfolio Strategy Expensive valuations leave no room to maneuver in the S&P real estate index that has to contend with a higher interest rate backdrop and deteriorating cash flow growth fundamentals. Trim to…
Dear Client, Alongside this week's report we are also sending you a fascinating short Special Report written by Jennifer Lacombe of our Global ETF Strategy sister service. The report, which demonstrates the use of ETF flows as a…
Highlights The global economy is slowing. However, growth should stabilize at an above-trend pace over the next few months, as fiscal policy turns more stimulative and interest rates remain in accommodative territory. President Trump…
Highlights Oil markets could get even tighter, depending on fundamental "known unknowns." Chart of the WeekEM Import Volumes Continue Expanding,##BR##Reflecting Rising Incomes And Oil Demand The largest of these…
Highlights U.S. Treasury Curve: The U.S. Treasury curve has flattened to new cyclical lows as the market has moved to fully price in the Fed's interest rate forecasts. Inflation expectations must rise further for those…
Highlights Duration & The Fed: With market rate expectations still not as elevated as the Fed's projections, the outlook for Treasury price return during the next 12 months is poor. Maintain a below-benchmark duration stance.…
Highlights Apart from rising geopolitical tensions, our main macro themes remain a growth slowdown in China and a rise in U.S. core inflation. This combination bodes ill for EM financial markets. Continue underweighting EM stocks,…
Highlights Capacity cuts in China's steel and aluminum industries over the winter produced little in the way of output reductions, confounding our expectations. The resulting unintended inventory accumulation in Asian markets,…