Highlights Q1 Performance Breakdown: The GFIS recommended model bond portfolio returned -0.55% (hedged into U.S. dollars) in the first quarter of 2018, underperforming the custom benchmark index by -11bps. The overweight to U.S.…

Highlights Q1 earnings season looks robust, but trade policy is an uncertainty. Sizeable shifts in equity technicals and sentiment since the start of the year; valuation still stretched. Global growth may have peaked but fiscal,…

Highlights Portfolio Strategy The capex upcycle, a soft U.S. dollar and improving end demand signal that it no longer pays to underweight the S&P tech sector. Lift exposure to neutral. Firming domestic and global final demand,…

Special Report

Highlights In China, the central bank and commercial banks conducted outright monetization of real estate inventories, which caused the property markets' recovery post 2015. Despite destocking, aggregate property inventories…

Highlights Trade wars have captured investors' imaginations, but slowing global growth is a more immediate risk for both asset prices and exchange rates. As reflationary forces ebb, slow global growth will help the dollar stage a…

Feature Japan's economic experience in the post bubble era is often described as a fate to avoid at all costs. We would like to turn this common notion on its head. Rather than something to avoid, Japan's post bubble…

Highlights Solid fundamentals will keep the backwardation in the forward curves of the benchmark crude-oil streams - WTI and Brent - intact. If our long-held thesis is correct and OPEC 2.0 becomes a durable producer coalition, we believe…

Highlights Chart 1Inflation Pressures Mount  Spread product underperformed equivalent-duration Treasuries for the second consecutive month in March. But last month's underperformance was different than February's in one…

Dear Client, Yesterday, my colleagues Marko Papic, Matt Gertken, and I had a webcast to discuss the rising threats of trade wars between the U.S. and China. If you have not listened to it yet, I encourage you to listen to it here. Best…

Highlights The biggest demand-side risk to base metals this year remains a larger-than-expected China economic slowdown. A managed slowdown appears to be under way, with Beijing giving every appearance of balancing macro-prudential…