Highlights A thorough audit of our trade book highlights that our country and sector allocation recommendations have been quite profitable for investors. Of the 12 active trades in our book, 11 have generated a positive return,…

Highlights While bullish sentiment for copper remains high, concerns that policymakers' attempts at a managed slowdown in China this year goes too far will weigh on the market. Fundamentally, support for copper prices from potential…

Highlights Trade #1: Go Short The December 2018 Fed Funds Futures Contract. The trade has gained 64 bps since we initiated it. We are lifting the stop to 60 bps and targeting a profit of 75 bps. Trade #2: Go Long Global Industrial…

Highlights The euro is in a cyclical bull market. It is supported by attractive valuations, improving balance of payments dynamics, declining political risk, potential shifts in reserves preferences, and a re-rating of the European…

Highlights Our new pecking order for currencies is: yen first, euro second, pound third, dollar fourth. Long-term (real) interest rate differentials are the dominant driver of currencies right now. EUR/USD should continue to trend…

Highlights Slower global demand growth, coupled with surging production from the U.S. shales and higher OPEC 2.0 production, risks reversing the progress made in draining global commercial oil storage and tanking prices in 2019.1 Our…

Highlights An increase in the "synthetic" supply of bitcoins via financial derivatives, along with the launch of bitcoin-like alternatives by large established tech companies, will cause the cryptocurrency market to collapse…

Highlights Environmental reforms in China continue to reduce steelmaking capacity. The shuttering of illegal induction facilities in China also is tightening markets. Although official Chinese steel output is higher, this likely reflects…

Special Report

Highlights The beta of Chinese stocks has been steadily increasing over the past few years, versus both emerging markets and global stocks. Rising relative currency volatility has likely durably increased the cyclicality of Chinese…

Highlights U.S. Treasuries: U.S. Treasury yields are too low relative to the strength of global economic growth and the rising trend in U.S. inflation expectations. Maintain below-benchmark duration exposure in the U.S., stay…