Dear Client, This is our last report of 2017. We will be back on January 4, 2018, with our customary recap of recommendations made this year. We wish you and your loved ones the very best this lovely season has to offer. Sincerely,…

Highlights BCA expects the 2/10 curve to steepen in 1H in 2018, then flatten in 2H. U.S. equities, the stock-to-bond ratio and oil thrive when the curve is flat. Small caps struggle. Record household net worth matters more for…

Highlights The dollar has decoupled from interest rate differentials, being hurt by buoyant global growth. For the dollar to weaken more in 2018, global growth will have to accelerate further from current lofty rates. The tightening…

Highlights The stellar performance in metals over the past year resulted from a combination of favorable demand- and supply-side developments, propelled along, as always, by China's outsized effect on fundamentals. On the demand side…

Special Report

Dear Client, I am currently traveling in Europe visiting clients. This week, in lieu of a regular report, I am sending along a research report written by my colleague at BCA Global Asset Allocation. The topic covers one of the more…

Special Report

Highlights Catastrophe bonds ("cat bonds") have recently been receiving a lot of investor attention because, after this summer's large hurricanes, they are now attractively priced. We explain the mechanics of this market…

Highlights Chart 12017 Bond Returns  Treasuries sold off for the third consecutive month in November (Chart 1), and with Congress about to deliver tax cuts and core inflation showing signs of bottoming, the bond bear market is…

Special Report

As we near the end of an impressive year for equities, the relationship between price growth and earnings growth and how to best position a portfolio for 2018 bears some reflection. The purpose of this report, rather than take a position…