Highlights U.S. fiscal stimulus will be priced back into markets; Northeast Asia is consumed with domestic politics for now; China's financial crackdown raises risks, but so far looks contained; South Korea's relief rally…

Highlights Portfolio Strategy Upgrade capital markets stocks to overweight and put them on the high-conviction list. Capital formation is poised to accelerate in the second half of the year. Our Indicators suggest that demand for…

Highlight Once-ebullient oil markets are overwrought. Fears that an economic slowdown in China will spill over into EM - the engine of global commodity demand growth - along with a very weak 1Q17 U.S. GDP performance, will keep oil…

Special Report

Highlights The risk to EM currencies is to the downside over the next 12 months - i.e., they will depreciate more than their carry. In this context, investors in local currency bonds should consider hedging against currency…

Highlights Portfolio Strategy Any advance in Treasury yields should be gradual and more reflective of an improving global economy than it would be restrictive for equities. Book profits in homebuilders and downgrade to neutral.…

Highlights The headwinds against commodity currencies are still brewing, the selloff is not over. Global liquidity conditions are deteriorating and EM growth will disappoint. The valuation cushion in commodity currencies and EM plays…

Highlights Chart 1Rate Hikes Lagging Wage Growth  Last Friday's GDP report showed that the U.S. economy grew a meagre 0.7% (annualized) in the first quarter of 2017, well below levels necessary to sustain an uptrend in…

GAA DM Equity Country Allocation Model Update The GAA DM Equity Country Allocation model is updated as of April 30, 2017. The model has increased its allocation to Spain at the expenses of Germany largely driven by changes in the value…

Highlights Portfolio Strategy Upgrade the financials sector to overweight. This year's consolidation phase is drawing to a close as inflation expectations stabilize. Lift the S&P banks index to overweight. Leading indicators…

Highlights Portfolio Strategy The consumer staples recovery is sales-driven, underscoring that additional outperformance lies ahead. The lagging hypermarkets and retail food industries are starting to play catch up, reflecting a…