The global search for yield, not an improvement in EM fundamentals, has been driving the EM rally. EM/China growth conditions have stabilized but not recovered. Barring a full-fledged cyclical profit upsurge in EM EPS, EM stocks are…
Shift to a small vs. large cap bias as a stealth way to play the overall equity market overshoot. The oversold bounce in banks is not worth chasing, and buy dips in medical equipment stocks.
U.S. inflationary forces remain tame, forcing the Fed to maintain an easy bias. Yet, the global economy is improving. This confluence could weigh on the dollar and boost commodity currencies. The NZD has more upside, but it will lag…
More aggressive monetary and fiscal stimulus will be necessary to resuscitate the Japanese economy. While the BoJ's forthcoming review is likely to endorse the current policy stance, there is a good chance that Kuroda will open the…
The euro area's NPL problem is unlikely to be solved quickly, constraining bank profitability and the capacity to lend. There are three important repercussions for investors.
The tailwind of better-than-expected global growth and highly supportive monetary policy has the potential to push global spread product into overshoot territory.
The combination of strengthening global growth and more accommodative monetary policy means that spread product can continue to outperform in the coming months. Despite lingering concerns about credit quality in the corporate sector…