Last week's blowout jobs report had the beautiful combination of strong growth and flat/rising underemployment rates. This supports our expectation of a Fed hike in December rather than one in September.Accelerating growth when the…

While the BoE and the Fed are increasingly committed to letting inflation expectations rise, the BoJ disappointed once again. The dollar and the pound are likely to experience broad weaknesses, while gold, the euro and commodity…

In July, the model outperformed both global equities and the S&P 500 in local-currency terms, while underperforming in U.S. dollar terms. For the monthly of August, the model made no changes to overall risk exposure.

The U.S. and the global economies are improving. A synchronized upswing normally trumps the Fed in determining the path for the dollar. U.S. inflation expectations are likely to rise relative to the rest of the world, weighing on the…

The major banks are more willing to lend to the consumer and less willing to lend to the corporate sector.

Expectations of a prolonged period of abundant liquidity and rising confidence that recession is not imminent have created the conditions for a potential blow-off phase. This week we are fine-tuning our portfolio for peak performance…

Refiners will reduce run rates over the next month or so to clear unintended inventory accumulation, but it's not like they've never had to deal with this situation.

In successful investment analysis "less is more, and usually much more effective."

There has not been much of an improvement/recovery in the Chinese economy. Credit growth is weakening anew, which warrants a downbeat cyclical outlook for China's industrial sectors. Malaysia is heading into a classic credit/banking…

The latest data releases confirm that the Chinese economy regained its footing. In the near term, growth figures should continue to surprise to the upside. Earnings preannouncements by Chinese listed firms show a significant…