Developed Market bond yields are too low relative to improving global growth and the strong recovery in risk assets post-Brexit. Reduce portfolio duration to below-benchmark.
Forecast is diverging from strategy for equities. Intermediate-term positives allow for a blowoff to the upside. But we do not expect the rally to have staying power over a 6-12 month horizon.
Over the past 12 months, the yen surged, powered by global deflationary fears. Japanese monetary conditions massively tightened, causing additional yen strength, creating a vicious circle. Policymakers will respond, but markets are…
The perception that central banks have turned even more dovish has pushed down global bond yields, while also giving stocks a lift. Looking out, bond yields are likely to edge higher as investors begin to focus more on the outcome of…
Commodity speculation provides liquidity to hedgers, allows price discovery, and offers access to an asset class that typically produces returns that are not correlated with stock or bond returns.
Given that the seemingly unthinkable can actually happen, we reassess how financial markets price uncertainty, and whether the current pricing is correct.
Signs that the median voter is moving to the left are everywhere. Markets will cheer the move as it means more government spending. In the long term, it depends if policymakers stop at fiscal stimulus. In this Monthly Report, BCA's…
The breakout in the S&P 500 could boost flows to EM, and momentum could overwhelm fundamentals for several weeks. Nevertheless, U.S. interest rate expectations will rise and it, along with weak EM profits, will cap upside in EM…
A spike in economic uncertainty explains the recent move lower in Treasury yields. Given the resilience of global growth, we expect yields to rise as uncertainty ebbs in the coming months.