China's reflation policies have succeeded in reviving iron ore and steel prices, which are up 45.6% and 52.6% from their January lows, along with the profitability of domestic steelmakers.
We discuss the technical and political problems with helicopter money, plus the near-term outlook for the euro area economy and markets.
The factors that drove the recent rally - Fed dovishness, China reflation, and a pickup in economic data - are largely over.
Financial conditions will continue to ease during the next few months, and the Fed will use its June statement to prepare the markets for a rate hike in September.
Profits are bottoming but the outlook is lackluster, even if further dollar weakness provides a temporary boost.
Reflation continues to dictate short-term market moves. Behind this sugar-high, the global economic backdrop remains poor. Commodity currencies can rally for a few more weeks, but once markets refocus on Chinese and EM core…
For the month of April, the model's performance was in line with the S&P 500, but lagged global equities. For May, the model is aggressively paring back its equity risk exposure. Both Europe and Emerging Markets were downgraded,…
The Fed's statement underscored its 'go slow' approach, with a June hike increasingly unlikely, but September and December still in play. The BoJ stood pat, reluctant to admit that NIRP was a flop soon after it was launched.…