A stronger yen is hampering efforts to revive the Japanese economy and the BoJ's failed NIRP experiment leaves open the option of direct currency intervention. Probability is also high that the April 2017 sales tax hike will be…
A weaker USD resulting from more dovish forward guidance from the Fed, and evidence of continued production declines in non-OPEC and OPEC countries will continue to buoy oil prices.
Clients should forgive us for being too gloomy at the start of the year -- it is difficult to be optimistic in the dead of a Montreal winter. However, with springtime comes the reflation trade, born on the wings of massive Chinese…
Chinese PPI deflation will likely continue to ease going forward. There are non-trivial odds that the PPI deflation may turn positive. Our models predict a sharp upturn in China's profit cycle. Meanwhile, Anti-corruption…
Treasuries appear overbought in the near-term, especially given evidence of a rebound in global manufacturing, but we would need to see evidence of a sustained re-synchronization of global growth before advocating a shift to below…
A lack of confirming growth indicators puts the equity advance at risk. Lift hypermarkets to overweight, stick with homebuilders and fade any small and/or mid cap relative strength.
We are confident that the reward/risk tradeoff to holding equities and high-yield corporate bonds is deteriorating and that rallies in these assets are high-risk affairs.
These general themes - along with our assessment that markets were overestimating downside price risk and underestimating upside risks arising from supply destruction and geopolitical instability - supported the best-performing…