Mega Themes
The latest update of the Manheim Used Vehicle Price Index provides a positive signal for US goods inflation. It shows used car prices fell by -4.2% m/m (-10.1% y/y) in June – its third consecutive monthly decline following a brief pickup in…
On Monday, the Eurozone Sentix sent a pessimistic signal about investor confidence in the Eurozone economy. The headline index dropped from -17.0 to -22.5 in July, significantly below expectations of a more muted deterioration to -17.9. Both the Expectations…
According to BCA Research’s US Political Strategy service, US fiscal policy is marginally negative for the economy and marginally increases the odds of recession in 2023-24. It is not a positive catalyst for equities in the third quarter. Fiscal policy is…
On the surface, the lower-than-anticipated job gains suggest that US labor market conditions softened last month. Friday’s jobs report revealed that the increase in nonfarm payrolls slowed from a downwardly revised 306 thousand to 209 thousand in June – below…
Canadian hiring surprised to the upside in June. The 60 thousand increase in employment last month – the highest since January – came in triple expectations of a 20 thousand rise and follows a 17 thousand decline in May. The increase mainly reflects a sharp…
Last week’s labor market data signal that US employment conditions remain strong – solidifying the case for a 25 bps rate hike at the Fed’s next meeting later this month (see The Numbers). Yet in order for the Fed to continue tightening beyond July,…
Global stocks fell and sovereign bond yields surged on Thursday following the release of stronger-than-anticipated US labor market data. Data released by Challenger, Gray, & Christmas showed job cuts declined to 40,709 last month from 80,089 in May.…
Yesterday we highlighted that falling producer prices foreshadow lower CPI inflation in the Eurozone and argued that this dynamic is positive for the bloc’s consumption outlook. Easing price pressures will ultimately lift real wages, reducing the drag on…
According to our Counterpoint strategy service, latest nowcasts indicate that world growth has likely slowed to sub-2 percent, thereby passing the threshold of a typical world recession as experienced in the early 1970s, early 1980s, early 1990s and early…
According to BCA Research’s China Investment Strategy service, although the recovery in overall Chinese industrial profits will be subdued, there will be a silver lining among China’s consumer goods producers, autos and utilities. Corporate earnings in…