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Mexico

Mexico And Brazil: Inflation And Macro Paths Diverge
September CPI releases in Brazil and Mexico reinforce a divergent inflation and policy outlook that supports an overweight stance in Mexican local bonds and currency relative to Brazilian assets. Brazil’s headline CPI at 5.2% was slightly higher than in…
Daily Insights by Artem Sakhbiev
Mexico: Ride The Bond Train
Banxico cut rates to 7.5%, reinforcing our call to go long Mexican local bonds and overweight Mexico across EM portfolios. Inflation is within target, giving policymakers space to ease. Sound fiscal management and strong external accounts continue to support…
Daily Insights by Juan Egana, Armen Hamazaspyan
Mexico: Monetary Easing Is Not Over
Banxico’s latest rate cut reinforces our bullish view on Mexican domestic bonds. Mexico’s central bank eased policy by another 25 basis points to 7.75%.  Investors should bet on further easing. Inflation will continue falling within the target range…
Daily Insights by Juan Egana
Why Balance Of Payments Matter: A Chartbook

In this chartbook, we look at the balance of payments across DM and EM countries. The US does not fare well, but neither do a few other countries.

Foreign Exchange Strategy by Chester Ntonifor
Buy Mexican Domestic Bonds
Banxico’s dovish stance reinforces our bullish view on Mexican local currency debt. The Mexican central bank cut interest rates by another 50 basis points to 8%.  The central bank will continue easing monetary policy well into next year. Slower US…
Daily Insights by Juan Egana
Mexico: Disinflation Delay Doesn’t Derail the Long Bonds Trade
Hot May inflation should not derail Banxico’s easing cycle; we remain long Mexican local bonds. Headline inflation accelerated to 4.4% y/y from 3.9%, above expectations, while core inflation was roughly flat at 4.1% from 3.9%. The upside surprise was driven…
Daily Insights by Juan Egana
Mexico: Monetary Easing Continues
Banxico’s 50 bps rate cut reinforces our bullish view on Mexican bonds, with easing likely to continue as inflation falls and growth slows. The central bank unanimously lowered its policy rate to 8.5%, and we expect further cuts ahead as Mexico heads toward a…
Daily Insights by Felix Vezina-Poirier
Mexico’s Geopolitics: From Headwind To Tailwind
Special Report

Short-term pain from Trump-related concessions, fiscal tightening amid a US and Mexican slowdown, and rising labor slack will weigh further on Mexican assets. But long-run, policy direction will capitalize on the nearshoring trend and resume the trend of Mexican asset outperformance relative to other emerging markets.

Geopolitical Strategy by Max Malakhveitchouk
Mexico: An EM Star Amid A Tariff War
Mexico will be one of the biggest winners of the global trade war, creating a structural tailwind for its assets. Mexican risk assets and the peso are uniquely positioned to outperform while EM assets suffer as global growth slumps. First, Mexico’s…
Daily Insights by Felix Vezina-Poirier
Cinco De Macro: Navigating Mexico's Tariffs

In the long run, Mexico will emerge as one of the biggest winners of US tariffs as the US diversifies supply chains away from China. In the medium term, however, a US growth slowdown and tariffs will push Mexico into recession. In EM portfolios, we remain overweight Mexican equities, domestic bonds, and sovereign credit. We are reiterating a buy on 10-year domestic bonds. Go long MXN versus CNH.

Emerging Markets Strategy by Juan Egana

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