This year, we once again present our 2026 outlook as a retrospective from the future – a future in which the AI boom turned to bust.Next week, please join me for a Webcast on Wednesday, December 17 at 10:30 AM EST (3:30 PM GMT, 4:30…
The Fed is on hold for now, but its 2026 economic projections are far too optimistic. The Fed will ease more next year than it currently anticipates.
The odds have risen that we have reached a “Metaverse Moment” – a situation where investors punish AI companies for increasing capex. This warrants greater caution towards AI stocks specifically, and the broader S&P 500 more…
The September employment report probably won’t convince enough hawks to vote for a rate cut in December.
The Bank of England will resume rate cuts in December after the autumn budget is passed. Today’s Strategy Insight discusses what this means for UK gilts and the pound.
The Fed cut rates today, but a follow-up rate cut in December is uncertain. It will depend, in large part, on who wins a debate about the neutral rate of interest.
The Fed cut rates by 25 bps to 3.75%–4.00% and announced QT will end December 1, signaling modest easing but no December cut commitment. The decision matched expectations, with dovish (Gov. Miran, for a 50 bps cut) and hawkish (Pres…