Monetary
In this Insight, we highlight our strong conviction trades based on the central bank meetings held by the Bank of England, the Norges Bank, the Swiss National Bank and the Riksbank.
European central banks are pivoting quickly amid deflationary pressure, reinforcing our long UK Gilts and short GBP trades. The Norges Bank surprised with a 25 bps cut to 4.25%, abandoning its hawkish stance. The Swiss National Bank cut by 25 bps to 0%, in…
Turkey’s tight policy stance will weigh on growth and earnings, reinforcing our bearish view on Turkish equities. The central bank held rates at 46% and maintained a hawkish bias, consistent with efforts to bring inflation down from 35% to single digits.…
In this Insight, we look at the best trade idea from the recent rate cut by the Riksbank.
While we anticipate higher inflation in June, it looks increasingly likely that the price impact from tariffs will be less aggressive and long-lasting than many feared.
The ECB’s expected rate cut to 2% marks a slower easing phase, capping Bund yields. The shift to a quarterly pace of cuts, barring surprises, confirms a more gradual approach despite ongoing disinflation and weak growth. Staff projections downgraded inflation…
India's IT service exports have been booming and will continue to do so despite wider AI usage. Indian IT stocks, however, will not benefit from it as the expanding Global Capability Centers (GCCs) in India compete with the nation’s IT companies, driving the latter's profitability down.
Canada’s Headwinds Push The BoC Toward Easing
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Ukraine, Tariffs, and TACO: Still Buying Europe on Dips
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The RBNZ’s dovish stance will weigh on bond yields and the currency. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand cut rates by 25 basis points to 3.25%, building on 225 basis points worth of easing since August 2024. New Zealand’s central bank is signaling one…