Last week’s labor market data signal that US employment conditions remain strong – solidifying the case for a 25 bps rate hike at the Fed’s next meeting later this month (see The Numbers). Yet in order for…
Positive economic surprises have delayed the onset of recession in the United States. But tighter monetary and fiscal policy, slowing global growth, and a looming rebound in policy uncertainty and geopolitical risk suggest that…
A perspective on the recent increase in US bond yields and this morning’s employment report.
In this short weekly report, we review some of the most common questions clients asked us in the last few weeks.
Global stocks fell and sovereign bond yields surged on Thursday following the release of stronger-than-anticipated US labor market data. Data released by Challenger, Gray, & Christmas showed job cuts declined to 40,709…
Yesterday we highlighted that falling producer prices foreshadow lower CPI inflation in the Eurozone and argued that this dynamic is positive for the bloc’s consumption outlook. Easing price pressures will ultimately lift…
On one hand, China will be exporting deflation to the rest of the world. On the other hand, core inflation is sticky in the US, making the Fed err on the hawkish side. Altogether, these crosscurrents are creating a toxic mix for risk…
Eurozone producer prices fell by more than anticipated in May. The -1.5% y/y decrease – which marked the first annual drop since December 2020 – was more pronounced than expectations of a -1.3% y/y decline and…
The minutes from the June FOMC meeting didn’t reveal anything that wasn’t already known. They did explicitly say that “some” participants would have preferred a 25 basis point rate hike instead of a pause…
The world economy is likely already in recession, defined as world growth dipping to sub-2 percent. So far, the world recession has been China-led, but in the coming months it will change to being developed economy-led. Hence, while…