The performance of financial markets continued to improve in June, with most of the major financial assets we track generating positive abnormal returns. The US equity rally – which had been narrowly concentrated among…
Recession is on track to start around year-end. Stocks usually peak shortly before recession begins. So, position defensively but be prepared for a few more months of the rally.
This report reviews our key calls for major currencies, in light of recent data releases.
In their just-published update of US housing market conditions, our colleagues at the BCA Bank Credit Analyst focus on whether May’s strong showing in new home starts and sales in May – up 21% and 12%,…
Our US Bond Strategy service responds to recent data releases which showed that real economic growth and the labor market are surprisingly resilient, while inflation pressures continued to decline. The 10-year Treasury yield…
A look at how US bond yields responded to yesterday’s strong economic data and this morning’s soft inflation print.
The preliminary inflation prints for June in the major euro area economies highlight a growing divergence in inflation outcomes. There was good news: headline CPI inflation in Italy fell to 6.7% in June from 8.0% in May, while…
Since the Brazilian Central Bank (BCB) released its latest monetary policy minutes on June 27th, the Brazilian real has depreciated for three days in a row. Will the BRL resume its strengthening trajectory, or is the currency set…
Our Counterpoint service argues that it is not enough that inflation stabilizes at 3 percent for inflation expectations to be anchored and central banks must make inflation undershoot 2 percent for some time to prevent a repeat…