The latest Eurozone data releases show the impact of the ECB’s aggressive monetary tightening cycle. The contraction in M1 money supply – which includes currency in circulation and overnight deposits –…
The Chinese currency has underperformed most of its emerging market peers so far this year, depreciating by 2.5% vis-à-vis the US dollar. RMB weakness is consistent with the signal from other Chinese risk assets including…
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand hiked rates this week to 5.5%. There are many reasons to expect that to be the last rate hike for this cycle – a development that is positive for New Zealand bonds but bearish for the New Zealand…
US bond investors should increase portfolio duration from “at benchmark” to “above benchmark” on a cyclical (6-12 month) investment horizon. We also recommend exiting Treasury curve flatteners and closing short positions in the…
The debt ceiling game’s endpoint will avoid default only if it implies economic pain. For the Republicans, the best strategy is not to lift the debt ceiling unless the Democrats cut spending a lot, or unless the economy starts to…
Global growth will weaken in the coming months, yet monetary authorities worldwide will be reluctant to ease policy. This state of affairs foreshadows a clash between markets and policymakers in the months ahead. China’s recovery is…
A restrictive policy by the ECB and a weak manufacturing sector will create headwinds for European stocks this summer. How should investors position their portfolios in this context?
The change in the BoE’s tone has likely altered the path for sterling. In this report, we explore if the BoE’s lens for monetary policy is justified, and provide some targets for the pound.