The change in the BoE’s tone has likely altered the path for sterling. In this report, we explore if the BoE’s lens for monetary policy is justified, and provide some targets for the pound.

The crisis hitting regional and local banks in the US is adding to oil-price volatility and gold demand. The crisis arguably is fallout from the Fed’s aggressive monetary policy tightening, and contributes to the upending economic…

April’s CPI report was soft enough to justify a Fed pause in June. However, the overall economic data still don’t justify the magnitude of rate cuts priced into the yield curve.

There is a 50:50 chance of experiencing a major deflationary shock in the next two years, and an even greater likelihood on a longer timeframe. The good news is that several assets provide a good insurance against this risk, and that…

Indian EPS growth is set for major disappointments vis-à-vis the lofty expectations. Weak domestic demand amid tight fiscal and monetary policy entails more downside in stock prices. Stay underweight.

The Fed hiked 25 basis points at yesterday’s FOMC meeting while also signaling that the tightening cycle is now on hold. We discuss the short-run and long-run implications for Treasury yields.

As the Fed meets today, we explain what it did wrong in 1970, 1974, and 1980 that prevented inflation from being exorcised, and the lessons for 2023-24. Plus, we identify a currency cross that could rebound in the next year.

Macro and geopolitical risks may spoil the narrow window for a stock market rally before recessionary trends rise to the fore.

The risk-reward of the US dollar is currently positive. If a US recession is not imminent, then US bond yields will move higher, thus supporting the greenback. If the US enters a recession soon, the US dollar will benefit because it…

This week we present our Portfolio Allocation Summary for May 2023.