This week’s report looks at the banking crisis within the context of shrinking dollar liquidity and implication for FX markets.
The banking crisis has hit European shores and engulfed CS; is this all bad news for Europe or have the odds of a policy mistake declined?
The turmoil in US regional banks will weigh on economic growth. Arguably, it would be better for the broader stock market if growth slowed because banks became more conservative in their lending than if it slowed because the Fed had…
Depending on market volatility during the next few trading days, the Fed will either lift rates by 25 bps next week or pause its tightening cycle. Either way, the Fed’s hiking cycle is close to its peak but rate cuts won’t be coming…
Bank failures are another ‘canary in the coal mine’ warning that a US recession is imminent, yet stocks, bonds, and the oil price are still a long way from fully pricing it.
The growth and inflation profiles of the three central European countries are set to diverge. The outlook for Polish and Hungarian Bonds are not attractive anymore. Book profits on them. Instead, initiate a new trade: pay Polish /…
Our fixed income strategists recommend positioning for a bear-flattening of the US Treasury curve.
Investors in Europe and the American West are already starting to think about the implications of the 2024 election, given that sticky inflation and tighter monetary policy keep the risk of recession elevated.