President Biden’s political capital has fallen as he enters a challenging year that will include a domestic faceoff with the House Republicans and foreign crises stemming from China, Russia, and Iran. Stay defensive and prefer bonds…

When does rising unemployment become a bigger problem than inflation? The Fed won't cut rates until that happens, probably thwarting market hopes of big cuts in 2H.

The most important question investors need to answer is whether this is the right time to shift the portfolio to a more aggressive and cyclical stance now that the end of the hiking cycle is in sight. To answer this question, we…

Special Report

This week’s Special Report goes over the structural problems facing the UK economy and our outlook for UK gilts and the sterling following turbulent moves in 2022.

Special Report

This week’s Special Report uses our Golden Rule of Bond Investing to forecast US Treasury returns for 2023 under different economic scenarios.

Special Report

Highlights Market expectations for Fed rate cuts later this year reflect either an extremely mild US recession, or a nonrecessionary scenario in which inflation falls rapidly back toward the Fed’s target. In the case of a true…

Fed Governor Lael Brainard delivered an important speech last week in which she laid out the intellectual justification for the Fed to soon pause its rate hike cycle. This week’s report reviews her arguments and explains how they…

Special Report

Global investors should sell Chinese assets on strength this year and diversify into other emerging markets. American investors should limit China exposure. Short CNY-USD.

We remain bullish the yen, despite the BoJ maintaining yield curve control. In this report, we outline a few reasons for this stance.

We remain bullish the yen, despite the BoJ maintaining yield curve control. In this report, we outline a few reasons for this stance.