In this Strategy Insight, we assess the best and worst opportunities for inflation-linked bonds within the major developed markets. We see a case for underweighting inflation protection in the euro area, while overweighting Japanese…
In response to lower energy prices and China’s reopening, European assets prices are outperforming. Will the ECB spoil the party?
In this week’s report, we look at whether global growth conditions remain conducive for a continued decline in the dollar. Our findings are mixed, while there are some economic green shoots, the overall growth picture remains weak.…
The Fed will respond to December’s CPI report by downshifting to a 25 bps hike pace next month. We anticipate two more 25 bps hikes before the Fed goes on hold.
China's economic recovery will be led by consumer spending on services rather than the industrial sector. The current equity market leadership – outperformance by tech stocks – is unsustainable. Persistent deflationary forces will…
Slowing growth would be bad for equities, but so would stronger growth since it would mean more rate hikes.
In this, our final report of a tumultuous year, we summarize our policy outlook for the “Big 4” central banks – the Fed, the ECB, the Bank of England (BoE) and the BoJ – and the associated bond market implications for 2023.
Investors were heartened by the November CPI report, but the Fed said not so fast. Although it snuffed out the latest mini-rally, ongoing disinflation will set the stage for another one early next year.