Executive Summary Economic growth is now a casualty, and not a driver, of monetary policy choices. Inflation is dictating where central banks are taking interest rates. Our baseline view remains that core US inflation will…
In lieu of next week’s report, I will host a Webcast on Monday, June 27 to explain the recent market turmoil and how to navigate it through the second half of 2022. Please mark the date, and I do hope you can join. Executive…
Executive Summary Bonds sold off dramatically in response to Friday’s surprisingly high CPI number. Markets are now pricing in a much more rapid increase in the fed funds rate, with some probability of a 75 bps move this week.…
Executive Summary ECB & Inflation: Whatever It Takes? Inflation is the European Central Bank’s single focus. This single-mindedness heightens the risks to Euro Area growth, especially because wider peripheral…
Executive Summary Hiring is slowing and layoffs have begun to rise, but today's robust net increases in non-farm payrolls are inconsistent with an approaching recession. The demise of the American consumer has been greatly…
Executive Summary Is Relative Inflation Peaking In The US? The dollar has likely peaked in the near term. An unwinding of speculative bets, based on structurally higher inflation in the US, is the key driver (Feature Chart…
Executive Summary Competing Forces On Global Bond Yields Bond yields in the developed world have ticked higher recently, due to a renewed increase in oil prices and the spillover effect from more hawkish policy expectations…
Highlights Chart 1Wage Growth Is Cooling In a speech last week, Fed Governor Christopher Waller presented the theoretical underpinnings for how the Fed plans to achieve a soft landing for the US economy.1 The Fed’s hope…
Listen to a short summary of this report. Executive Summary Sentiment On Sterling Is Depressed The pound will suffer in the short term, setting the stage for a coiled-spring rebound. Cable is extremely…