The Bank of Mexico raised rates by 25 bps on Thursday, marking the fourth consecutive rate increase this year and bringing the benchmark rate to 5%. These hikes come as the central bank attempts to temper rising inflation. At 6.…
Highlights US growth will slow next year, not because demand will falter, but because supply-side constraints will prevent the economy from producing as much output as households and businesses want to buy. If aggregate demand…
Highlights Geopolitical conflicts point to energy price spikes and could add to inflation surprises in the near term. However, US fiscal drag and China’s economic slowdown are both disinflationary risks to be aware of. …
Dear client, This week, we are introducing our new “Currency Month-In-Review” report. The new format should dovetail nicely with the historical back sections you have become accustomed to, but with a more holistic approach to…
The UK economy decelerated in Q3 with the GDP print falling below expectations. Economic growth slowed from 5.5% to 1.3% q/q versus an anticipated 1.5% rate. Similarly, year-over-year growth moderated to 6.6% from 23.6%. However…
Rising inflationary pressures are seeping into Aussie inflation expectations which according to the Melbourne Institute reached 4.6% in November. Nevertheless, the RBA pushed back against market rate hike expectations at last…
Highlights Fed/BoE: Both the Fed and the Bank of England found ways to talk down 2022 rate hike expectations discounted in US and UK bond markets. This is only a temporary reprieve, however, as the near-term uncertainties over the…
Highlights Fed: Chair Powell’s remarks after the November FOMC meeting suggest that the Fed will not panic and move quickly toward tightening in the face of high inflation. Rather, the Fed will stay the course and will only lift…
Highlights Supply-side pressures should abate over the coming months as semiconductor availability improves, transportation bottlenecks ease, energy prices recede, and more workers enter the labor force. The respite from inflation…
Highlights Duration & Country Allocation: Global bond yields have been driven by growth and inflation expectations over the past year, but shifting policy expectations are now the more important driver. Tighter monetary policies…