Highlights Liquidity conditions in Bangladesh are easy and growth has revived. Exports are set to recover as well. Foreign reserve accumulation will continue, which will have positive implications for the economy and stock prices.…
Highlights Energy Prices & Bond Yields: Surging energy prices are lifting inflation expectations in the US and Europe, while at the same time dampening consumer confidence amid diminished perceptions of real purchasing power. These…
Highlights Duration: We recommend that investors run below-benchmark portfolio duration in US bond portfolios on the expectation that the Treasury curve will bear-flatten between now and Fed liftoff in December 2022. Nominal Treasury…
Dear Client, There will be no weekly report next week. Instead, we will host our quarterly webcast on Tuesday, October 26 for the US and EMEA regions and Wednesday, October 27 for the Asia Pacific region. We will resume our regular…
Highlights UK GDP is on track to overtake pre-pandemic levels. This will strengthen the case for the BoE to tighten monetary policy. That said, markets are aggressively pricing in a hawkish BoE. This creates room for near-term…
Highlights Cross-Atlantic Policy Divergence: A steadily tightening US labor market means that the Fed remains on track to formally announce tapering next month. Meanwhile, the ECB is signaling that they are in no hurry to do the same…
Highlights Spread Product: Investors should stay overweight spread product versus Treasuries for now (with a preference for high-yield corporates over investment grade). But recent shifts in the yield/spread correlation suggest that…
Highlights Gold prices will continue to be challenged by conflicting information flows regarding US monetary policy; higher inflationary impulses from commodity prices and supply-chain bottlenecks; global economic policy uncertainty,…
Highlights Equity valuations are extremely stretched versus bonds, so there is little wiggle room for bonds to sell off before pulling down large tracts of the stock market. We estimate that bond yields can rise by no more than 30 bps…
Highlights Q3/2021 Performance Breakdown: Our recommended model bond portfolio outperformed the custom benchmark index by +8bps during the third quarter of the year. Winners & Losers: The government bond side of the portfolio…