BCA Research’s US Bond Strategy services recommends investors enter 2/10 steepeners on the inflation compensation curve and/or 2/10 flatteners on the real (TIPS) curve. The increase in the 10-year nominal yield since last…
US Financials is among the best performing US equity sectors over the past three months. We expect these positive relative gains to continue. Financials will benefit from rising US bond yields over the coming year. Not only…
Highlights Monetary Policy: It’s all but certain that tapering will begin next month and conclude by the middle of next year, but the FOMC is currently split right down the middle on whether it will be appropriate to lift rates…
Although the US dollar has appreciated this year, our foreign exchange strategists highlight that from a big picture perspective, dynamics remain tilted against the dollar. True, the DXY is off its May low of 89.6. However, it…
Highlights Economy – We find the leading arguments for why households’ excess savings won’t be spent to be wanting: US households do not commonly demonstrate the detached foresight that Ricardian equivalence takes as…
Highlights The Evergrande crisis is not China’s Lehman moment. Nonetheless, Chinese construction activity will decelerate further in response to this shock. Global equities are frothy enough that a weaker-than-expected Chinese…
As expected, the Norges Bank delivered its first rate hike on Thursday, bringing its benchmark policy rate to 0.25%. It is the first developed market central bank to raise rates in the post-COVID-19 crisis period. The central…
BCA Research’s Foreign Exchange Strategy service expects the Fed’s tapering of asset purchases to be a non-event for the US dollar. While the Fed is still considering tapering asset purchases (and would very likely do so…
Dear client, There will be no weekly bulletin next week. Instead, I will be hosting a webcast, with my colleague, Matt Gertken, titled “Currencies And Geopolitics: A Discussion.” I hope you will tune in so that we can have…
Highlights Global Inflation: Most central banks, led by the Fed, have stuck to the narrative that surging inflation is a temporary phenomenon that will not require an aggressive monetary policy response. However, global supply chain…