Highlights Last week’s market gyrations do not mark the end of China’s structural reforms. The country’s macro policy setting has shifted to allow a higher tolerance for short-term pain in exchange for long-term gain…
Highlights Chart 1Still Close To Fair Value Treasury yields fell significantly in July, particularly at the long end of the curve. We continue to view this move as an overreaction to mediocre economic data that will be reversed…
Highlights Economy – The Fed remains unperturbed about inflation, even as it continues to surprise to the upside: At his latest press conference, Chair Powell repeated the mantra that the spike in inflation will prove to be…
Highlights Globalization is recovering to its pre-pandemic trajectory. But it will fail to live up to potential, as the “hyper-globalization” trends of the 1990s are long gone. China was the biggest winner of hyper-…
Highlights China’s broad equity market performance since the PBoC cut its reserve requirement ratio (RRR) is consistent with our view. While the central bank’s policy tone remains dovish, a single reduction in the RRR rate…
Highlights Portfolio Duration: The decline in US bond yields is overdone. We anticipate that strong US employment data will catalyze a jump in bond yields this fall and that the 10-year US Treasury yield will reach a range of 2% - 2.25…
Dear Client, We will be presenting our quarterly webcast next week, and, as a result, will not be publishing on 29 July 2021. We will cover our major calls for the quarter and provide a look-ahead. I look forward to…
Feature June’s economic data and second-quarter GDP indicate that China’s economic recovery may have peaked. Slight improvements in some sectors, including manufacturing investment, exports and consumption, were offset by…
Highlights The ECB has changed its inflation target, but its credibility remains weak. Inflation will not allow the ECB to tighten policy anytime soon. Instead, the ECB will have to add to its asset purchase program next year and may…