Highlights Economy – The endpoint of easier-for-longer monetary policy may be coming into view: Elevated inflation readings and discomfort among more hawkish FOMC members may signal that a monetary policy inflection is on the way…
Highlights Gold is – and always will be – exquisitely sensitive to Fed policy and forward guidance, as last month's "Dot Shock" showed (Chart of the Week). Its price will continue to twitch – sometimes…
Highlights The US dollar will reach its ultimate high in the next deflationary shock. The swing factor for dollar demand is portfolio flows. In the next shock, portfolio flows will surge into US investments, driving up the US dollar to…
Dear Client, China Investment Strategy will take a summer break next week. We will resume our publication on July 14th. Best regards and we wish you a happy and healthy summer. Jing Sima, China Strategist Highlights A USD…
Highlights Spread Product: The macro environment is highly supportive for spread product and it will likely remain supportive for the next 12-18 months, at least until the yield curve flattens to below 50 bps. Remain overweight spread…
Highlights The US is withdrawing from the Middle East and South Asia and making a strategic pivot to Asia Pacific. The third quarter will see risks flare around Iran and the US rejoin the 2015 Iranian nuclear deal. The result is…
Highlights The ongoing transition to a post-pandemic state and fiscal policy are either positive or net-neutral for risky asset prices. Fiscal thrust will turn to fiscal drag over the coming year, but the negative impact this will…